Economists are realizing the job market is cooling. Workers have known it for months

By Sarah Foster Bankrate com Andy Challenger is the person businesses call when it s time to let workers go And for the past year and a half his phone hasn t stopped ringing Related Articles Five vehicles you should absolutely wait for Wall Street rallies toward more records as gold s price slumps again Business People MAC Chair Rick King announces retirement One Tech Tip How to prepare for outages that impact our online lives from banking to chatting apps Real World Economics Argentina bailout is a new level of corruption A third-generation outplacement consultant at Challenger Gray Christmas the firm his grandfather founded in the s after his own layoff Challenger has heard a variety of reasons over the past scarce months for trimming headcount Companies looking to cut staff after the pandemic-era hiring boom Executives debating how to integrate artificial intelligence Businesses worrying about eating the cost of higher tariffs Firms tightening their belts in a slowing business sector As economic facts continued to suggest a shockingly resilient labor territory his workload informed a different story Anyone who has watched a friend lose work seen a Now Hiring sign quietly come down scrolled through LinkedIn profiles marked OpenToWork or worried about how far your own paycheck will stretch knows what Challenger is talking about Economic reports can tell one story your reality often tells another For much of the past scarce years Americans have been notified the job industry was strong The numbers displayed solid hiring and low unemployment Economists have disclosed it s propped up the entire business activity fueling consumer spending that keeps surprising forecasters But for countless that story has never quite matched what was happening at their kitchen tables More than in workers percent didn t receive a pay increase at all over the past months the highest in four years and a sign of a slowing job sector according to Bankrate s new Pay Raise Survey A rising share of Americans in the labor force percent in from percent in also say they aren t confident they ll find a better-paying job or get a pay raise at their current position over the next months Economists are realizing that Americans were right all along The figures may certainly be starting to reflect Americans experiences Hiring over the past four months has flatlined Latest revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the financial market added nearly a million fewer jobs than previously announced between March and March All of it s adding to signs that Americans may have gotten it right economists say The numbers though still might not be telling the full story The U S market system grew by the fastest pace in almost two years last quarter but that might be because upper-income Americans are propping up spending The top percent of Americans now account for nearly half of consumer spending up from percent in the early s according to Moody s Analytics Meanwhile artificial intelligence is juicing up the economic system Business commitment in intellectual property contributed just over one-fifth of up-to-date economic expansion in the second quarter of this year records from the Department of Commerce shows The disconnect can give Americans the perception that they re struggling alone Over in percent U S adults say money negatively affects their mental strength above things like their wellness and relationships or even politics and world news according to Bankrate s Money and Mental Medical Survey Those Americans are also nearly three times more likely to have paid a bill late in the last month the survey uncovered If everyone is struggling well then it s a systemic breakdown If I m the one struggling whether that s true or not well there s something wrong with me says Nate Astle a certified financial therapist and the founder of the Financial Therapy Clinical Institute My cynicism for the media or the stats I m hearing and my distrust of institutions grows even wider because this isn t even close to my experience Those discrepancies also make it harder for policymakers to prescribe the right medicine Federal Reserve bureaucrats cut interest rates at their September meeting to give the labor territory more backing but they ve been cautious about moving too expeditiously fearful that they could worsen inflation Keeping rates high for too long though could weaken the job field even more In this moment in particular there is a greater need to understand what s going on at different income levels and for different populations Long says For the bottom percent we can see it in their spending habits This is not a boom time for them This is very much a back to the paycheck-to-paycheck lifestyle The real concern is when does it go from paycheck to paycheck to starting to miss bills The job field might not be getting much better says this small business owner Chris Taylor has a foot in both worlds A trained economist turned small business owner he co-owns Manhattan s oldest chocolate house Li-Lac Chocolates with six locations around New York City But Taylor doesn t need information to confirm that the job area is slowing He sees it on the ground We are getting seriously qualified candidates that six months ago wouldn t be bothered to talk to us he says The Fed sets interest rates based on whatever magic formulas they have and then you ride the wave You can t control the waves that you ride but I see huge labor territory weakness and I see huge pricing pressure on the retail side Taylor doesn t foresee the picture changing much anytime soon Li-Lac s costs have stayed manageable thanks to year-ahead contracts for chocolate and gift boxes but they ll have to place another order after the holidays If the Supreme Court upholds President Donald Trump s steep reciprocal tariffs Taylor expects a major jump in expenses He s searched for U S suppliers with the same quality and reliability but hasn t revealed any He doesn t know if he can pass those higher costs along to his customers either Taylor first noticed a slump in sales back in August which he mainly attributes to weaker tourism To stay afloat he s implementing a hiring freeze for his permanent employees and rethinking raises after previously boosting pay an average of percent over the past three years If my costs increase on raw materials I have to cut it somewhere and I have to cut it in labor he says I like to give good raises It s cheaper to pay good people well than it is to pay mediocre wages Like countless business owners Taylor isn t planning layoffs yet but he s bracing for the possibility Chocolate prices have already quadrupled in four years Every week another small chocolatier calls him looking to sell A tough business activity forced this small business owner to close up shop Hidden behind the numbers is also heartbreak Nicole Panettieri had just finished teaching college students how to create a small business proposal when she realized it was time to say goodbye to one of her own Panettieri owns two boutiques in Astoria Queens The Brass Owl a women s apparel and accessories shop that she opened in and The Tiny Owl a toy and children s store she launched after the pandemic But her debts were piling up her rent was rising faster than her sales and tariffs had pushed The Tiny Owl s costs up about to percent When a Target opened around the corner foot traffic died At the end of October she ll close The Tiny Owl for good laying off two employees and cutting hours for three more On the subway ride home from class she cried for the first time The day I narrated my unit that it was gonna happen it felt the the majority real she says We all fought really hard to make it work It feels like we all failed There were too countless obstacles for a business that s only three years old Motherhood and the experience of navigating city life with a newborn during the pandemic changing diapers on park benches inspired her to open the kids store She vowed to create a safe space for families that she never had Toys briskly became her bestseller making up more than half of her business She had hopes of eventually expanding Then tariffs hit Prices jumped almost overnight Vendors canceled shipments or delivered goods with duties higher than the cost of the order She had no choice but to pass the increases on to customers All the while she watched as passersby outside carried shopping bags from her lower-priced national competitors around the neighborhood Once prices are up they re up she says No one goes backwards Costs at her other shop have fared better but sales are still down about percent from last year She s paused hiring cut hours heading into the holidays and skipped raises for the first time in years To save The Brass Owl from the same fate she launched a GoFundMe that s already raised nearly half its goal A year ago she dreamed of opening a third store She lives for the little moments like watching kids around the neighborhood grow up Once a shopper advised her she d bought shoes from Panettieri s store for her first date and was now getting engaged Now she s debating whether to sell or close in a minimal years You re part of people s lives and I have the honor of seeing and talking to my customers she says I m not scared of a challenge I love to work and I allegedly overdo it but I ve gotten to a point where this is just exhausting and demoralizing This year has beat me down Meet Saquan Taylor an underemployed newest college graduate The latest statistics have also missed people like Saquan Taylor a -year-old jobseeker who keeps finding that the doors to better work are all closed Majority of days for Taylor follow the same pattern wake up at am work a full day as head educator at a child care facility in Connecticut hit the gym eat dinner and then for two hours scroll through job boards He calls LinkedIn Handshake and Glassdoor his social media feeds Since earning his associate s degree in he s applied to roughly a thousand jobs He s landed only six interviews Taylor has gotten so sparse responses to his applications back or he estimates that he doesn t even bother reading the emails in full anymore He scrolls straight to the end to see a phrase that at least so far has perpetually been there We regret to inform you that we have decided not to move forward with your application at this time People want to work They re just not being given the opportunity to work he says Things are booming the stock field is great but it s only great for a few people If you re not financially well then it s not great for you Taylor studied political science and hopes to work as a department head for a regime agency one day Federal job cuts however have made the field more competitive He s giving himself until December to find something new before moving back to New York City where he hopes to find more opportunities For now he s living at home with his mom in Connecticut paying down bills and his attendee loans Chosen days the job search feels like a test of self-worth That s when he ll remind himself of where he came from a studio apartment shared with family members after moving from Jamaica to New York His mother worked multiple jobs and became the first in their family to buy a house a drive he s tried to emulate Earlier this year Taylor finished his bachelor s degree graduating with honors from Central Connecticut State University after originally having to drop out from a four-year university in for financial reasons As the years went on I saw my mom do things I d really consider superhuman Once she puts her mind to something she s going to do it he says You have to really trick yourself into believing that there is goodness out there and hoping for the better I try to remain humble but also hopeful that there is a better day and I m doing what s necessary right now to make that day come true Stay subject and cut yourself specific slack this recruiter says Kyle Rapaport has taken it upon himself to validate what other jobseekers are experiencing Rapaport is a recruiter for companies in the supply chain industry the epicenter of Trump s commerce war He spends his days trying to connect people who need jobs with companies who need workers Lately he feels as exhausted as the jobseekers he talks to Companies are pickier than ever he says He s seen certain firms leave roles open for a year passing up qualified candidates in hopes of finding a perfect one who ll check every box Others meanwhile are motivated to hire one week then a couple weeks later implement a hiring freeze after reevaluating their finances Even in a tough realm he s still witnessed a stigma for hiring unemployed workers Companies know they are in control of the arena he says It s really tough to see candidates that I work with posting on LinkedIn week after week just not being able to land a position for one reason or another I want to help them Trying to help them and not being able to can be really frustrating and really taxing Certified financial therapist Nate Astle has been starting to remind his clients that they should budget for fun in their exigency fund just as much as their necessities knowing how much longer job searches are taking and how emotionally challenging they can be People say I have to distinguish between my requirements versus wants but wants are requirements and we need to have wants Astle says If I have been used to a certain lifestyle where I can go to the movies if I need to and suddenly I can t eventually I m going to say Screw it I m going to do whatever I want to do because I m so sad and depressed We need to budget for that fun It s the majority of critical money we spend When Rapaport can t find someone a job he ll do the next best thing that he thinks will help listen and give advice He frequently passes along resume feedback interview or negotiation tips and just general encouragement His best advice to jobseekers is to leverage your organization and to just stay individual If you are searching for a job in this realm especially if you are unemployed you are going to get burnt out he says There is so much rejection and a lot of times it s a job that you may be perfectly qualified for but you ll just never hear back Validate your own feelings that this is very frustrating but give yourself grace and know that you re not alone in going through this There are thousands of candidates if not even more who are experiencing the same thing every single day It s a matter of just continuing to fight through it Bankrate online Visit Bankrate online at bankrate com Distributed by Tribune Content Agency LLC Bankrate com Distributed by Tribune Content Agency LLC